工业设施受恐怖袭击风险评价方法研究进展

鉴于全球范围恐怖活动日益猖獗的形势,无论从学术研究还是维护社会安全稳定的角度,恐怖袭击都应作为一个重要的风险因素加以深入研究.恐怖袭击事故是由恐怖分子策划和实施的,其风险机理不同于系统失效或人为失误造成的事故机理.科学地分析、预测和预防恐怖袭击的风险成为当前安全科学领域面临的新课题.本文对国内外相关研究的进展做了较详细的评述,提出了对重要工业设施和公共设施在加强传统安全管理的同时要加强脆弱性评价和保安管理体系建设等建议.     

中国水灾社会脆弱性评估方法的改进与应用--以长沙地区为例

中国是洪水灾害发生频繁的国家之一,研究水灾脆弱性对中国的灾害风险管理有重要的意义.但是,合理评估脆弱性尤其是社会脆弱性却面临着极大的挑战.论文对评估社会脆弱性指数的研究现状进行了分析,指出了传统评估方法存在的问题,并尝试改进Hoovering评估模式.选择湘江流域的长沙地区为研究区,应用改进模型对研究区进行了社会脆弱性指数的评估.结果表明,长沙地区社会脆弱性从1980年至2000年基本处于下降趋势,但是在2002年和2003年增长迅速.2003年,长沙5区4县中社会脆弱性指数最大的是开福区,其次是长沙县,而宁乡县的社会脆弱性指数最低.     

乙烯装置的本质安全设计与操作

为保证乙烯装置的长期稳定运行,通过本质安全的设计和合理化操作,主要从高压脱丙烷塔、碳二前加氢、前冷系统、脱乙烷塔、甲烷化、乙烯精馏塔、丙烯精馏塔、脱丁烷塔等方面对乙烯装置可能出现的偏离正常操作情况做了详细的阐述,具有一定的指导意义。     

Exploring the Theoretical Interface of Climate Change and Resource Dependency: Application to the Vulnerability of Boreal Forest Regions

This paper addresses the combined effects of two sources of disturbance on the boreal forest – climate change and the economic relations of industrial forestry. It describes a theoretical blueprint constructed of concepts from the theory of dissipative structures (derived from the discipline of physical chemistry) and world-systems theory (derived from the discipline of sociology) into a proposed integrated theory pivoting on the concept of social vulnerability. The goal is to examine the key concepts of this theory – vulnerability, resilience and adaptive capacity – as elements of the complex systems perspective provided by dissipative structure principles. The focus on social vulnerability provides the means to establish the role of external economic linkages relevant to industrial forestry – the core/periphery relations of the world-system – as they influence the social vulnerability of the boreal forest SESs. These systems are posited as embedded peripheries, following world-system criteria, and as the focal scale of analysis within a larger hierarchically organized dissipative structure. The goal is to suggest and stimulate ideas for further discussion and exploration, motivated by the premise that any successful climate change mitigation efforts depend on having sound theoretical foundations on which to stand.     

模糊评价法在沧州市区地下水脆弱性评价中的应用

以DRASTIC模型为基础，建立了评价含水层污染性难易程度的模糊分析理论与方法，并将其应用于沧州市区地下水系统脆弱性评价。评价结果从趋势上反映了沧州市区地下水受污染的难易程度，与市区地下水污染现状吻合较好。     

Mitigation of the Impact of Tropical Cyclones in Northern Australia through Community Capacity Enhancement

Community mitigation of hazard impact requires hazard knowledge and preparedness on the part of the members of diverse and complex communities. Longitudinal research in the tropical cyclone prone north of Australia has gathered extensive datasets on community awareness, preparedness and knowledge, in order to contribute to education campaigns and mitigation strategies. Data have been used to identify issues of vulnerability to cyclones and capacity to deal with the hazard. This has been developed as a community vulnerability and capacity model that may be applied to diverse communities in order to assess levels of capability to mitigate and deal with the cyclone hazard. The model is presented here in a simplified form as its development is evolving and ongoing.     

基于多准则决策的长江经济带国土空间脆弱性与恢复力研究

科学评估国土空间脆弱性与恢复力并解释其时空分布特征,能为国土空间开发与保护相关决策提供参考。采用综合指数法和有序加权平均（Ordered Weighted Averaging, OWA）法分别评价和模拟长江经济带市域国土空间脆弱性及国土空间恢复力,并对二者的组合情况进行综合分析。结果表明：（1）2008-2017年间长江经济带国土空间脆弱性指数有明显下降趋势,累计下降率为16.49%,脆弱性指数从西向东逐步下降;（2）长江经济带“生态优先型”“维持现状型”“开发优先型”政策情景下国土空间恢复力分别处于较高（占47.22%）、中等（占35.19%）、低恢复力（占99.07%）水平;（3）长江经济带国土空间以低脆弱性-中等恢复力、低脆弱性-较低恢复力为主导,占30.63%,国土空间整体脆弱性低,恢复力处于较低至中等水平。     

重庆市特大旱灾的自然与社会机制分析

文章针对2006年的特大旱灾探讨了2006年的特大旱灾的特征,分析了2006年特大旱灾的形成自然机制和社会机制,并提出了今后重庆市抗御旱灾的策略。认为2006年的特大旱灾是自然因素与社会因素叠加的结果,是人类社会经济系统自身易损性的体现。     

The health sector gap in the southern Africa crisis in 2002/2003

The southern Africa crisis represents the first widespread emergency in a region with a mature HIV/AIDS epidemic. It provides a steep learning curve for the international humanitarian system in understanding and responding to the complex interactions between the epidemic and the causes and the effects of this crisis. It also provoked much debate about the severity and causes of this emergency, and the appropriateness of the response by the humanitarian community. The authors argue that the over-emphasis on food aid delivery occurred at the expense of other public health interventions, particularly preventative and curative health services. Health service needs were not sufficiently addressed despite the early recognition that ill-health related to HIV/AIDS was a major vulnerability factor. This neglect occurred because analytical frameworks were too narrowly focused on food security, and large-scale support to health service delivery was seen as a long-term developmental issue that could not easily be dealt with by short-term humanitarian action. Furthermore, there were insufficient countrywide data on acute malnutrition, mortality rates and performance of the public health system to make better-balanced evidence-based decisions. In this crisis, humanitarian organisations providing health services could not assume their traditional roles of short-term assistance in a limited geographical area until the governing authorities resume their responsibilities. However, relegating health service delivery as a long-term developmental issue is not acceptable. Improved multisectoral analytical frameworks that include a multidisciplinary team are needed to ensure all aspects of public health are dealt with in similar future emergencies. Humanitarian organisations must advocate for improved delivery and access to health services in this region. They can target limited geographical areas with high mortality and acute malnutrition rates to deliver their services. Finally, to address the underlying problem of the health sector gap, a long-term strategy to ensure improved and sustainable health sector performance can only be accomplished with truly adequate resources. This will require renewed efforts on part of governments, donors and the international community. Public health interventions, complementing those addressing food insecurity, were and are still needed to reduce the impact of the crisis, and to allow people to re-establish their livelihoods. These will increase the population's resilience to prevent or mitigate future disasters.